Decision Support System for Urbanization of the Northern Part of the Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain (Russia) on the Basis of Interdisciplinary Computer Modeling

摘要

There is a computer decision support system (CDSS) for urbanization of thenorthern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain. This system includes subsystemsof cognitive and game-theoretic analysis, geoinformation and hydrodynamicsimulations. The paper presents the cognitive graph, two-level and three-levelmodels of hierarchical games for the cases of uncontrolled and controlleddevelopment of the problem situation. We described the quantitative analysis ofthe effects of different strategies for the spatial distribution of theurbanized territories. For this reason we conducted the territory zoningaccording to the level of negative consequences of urbanization for variousagents. In addition, we found an analytical solution for games with the lineardependence of the average flooded area on the urbanized area. We numericallycomputed a game equilibrium for dependences derived from the imitationalgeoinformation and hydrodynamic modeling of flooding. As the result, we showedthat the transition to the three-level management system and the implementationof an optimal urbanization strategy minimize its negative consequences.